ARE WE SLEEP-WALKING TOWARDS THE NEXT WORLD WAR?
Roy Woodbridge's book, “The Next World War: Tribes, Cities, Nations and Ecological Decline” is a wake-up call that, given the climate events of 2023, we can no longer ignore.
As the 22nd anniversary of the September 11th terrorist attacks approaches, the media’s obsession with the war on terrorism shows no sign of abating. Could this obsession become dangerous? According to environmental consultant Roy Woodbridge, the war against terrorism is taking up far too much of our attention. There is an even more ominous threat to our collective security. Woodbridge is the author of “The Next World War: Tribes, Cities, Nations and Ecological Decline”, published by the University of Toronto Press.
For Woodbridge, the next big enemy is the ecological decline or ED -- a failure of ecosystems to provide the natural resources nations need to survive. The core idea behind his book is that given current practices and technologies, there may not be enough natural resources for the world to sustain its growing population, maintain peace and foster continued economic growth.
The international community must focus on sustainable development and the eradication of poverty so that the provisioning of societies -- ensuring an adequate supply of natural resources to nurture peace, reduce poverty and maintain growth – becomes the touchstone by which all major political decisions are tested.
To push this crucial agenda forward, Woodbridge calls on the UN to hold a World Forum on Global Provisioning. This forum would declare war on ED and set the strategy for a colossal global campaign to equitably provision all countries. If a better way to supply our societies is not found soon, the ensuing lack of resources could lead to global conflicts.
Very soon, the cumulative demands of continued economic growth and the reduction of global poverty, particularly in the developing world, will annually require the natural resources of three or four Earths. Woodbridge calls these our “provisioning needs”. If we do nothing, our choices in facing these gigantic provisioning needs will be very painful. In a stark précis of the world’s predicament, Woodbridge predicts that ED will become humanity’s greatest single constraint to achieving world peace, reducing global poverty and sustaining continued economic growth.
The Next World War is a rallying cry. One reviewer declared that “this book is a 'must read' for anyone not familiar with the dynamics that present us with this fatal choice and for everyone interested in the prospects for continued civilized life on Earth.” Is The Next World War really a must-read book?
The Next World War can be seen as part of that grim apocalyptic lineage that started with the Book of Job and more recently surfaced in Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring (1962) and the Club of Rome Report (1972). Both latter documents generated huge credibility problems for environmentalists. Carson and the Club of Rome authors predicted massive environmental problems. The trouble is, to the lay observer, the natural world has continued on just fine, albeit with more extreme weather of late. If Silent Spring and the Club of Rome Report were perceived as being wrong, why should we take Woodbridge seriously? Will not the virtuous circle of economic growth, increasing global democracy and free trade produce a self-regulating system of market-driven environmental protection measures?
For Woodbridge, this virtuous-circle theory of growth is a dangerous delusion given the challenges currently facing the world. The face of international competition is changing dramatically due to technological innovation. Many developing world countries are producing as many scientists and technocrats as the developed countries. The conceit that technological innovation is a competitive advantage for the West and Japan is going to be challenged by developing countries. Now hi-tech firms based in Europe and North America outsource high-paying technical jobs to countries like India and China. Changing economic relationships are creating new international power dynamics, dynamics we cannot predict. There will be new levels of wealth and poverty.
Faster chips, faster computers, nanotechnologies, artificial intelligence and robotics are all exciting possibilities, but they also lead us toward jobless growth and increased income gaps. This trend is accelerating because international competition is technology-based. In Canada, we may be well suited to handle this jobless growth given our low birth rate, shrinking labour force and aging population. But what about very populous countries like Indonesia, Brazil, India and China? The situation will become quite devastating with increased income gaps in these countries. This drives us towards a bipolar world of rich and poor, dividing nations and communities. Then what will happen to local efforts for protecting natural resources?
We have to break the passive pursuit of technological advance for its own sake. We have to start asking why? How will any given piece of new technology help us cope with ED and the crisis in global provisioning? How will we change the direction of technological advances?
Woodbridge believes the answer lies in strong leadership from governments at all levels. He argues that until we take the problem of ecological decline seriously, we are in danger of descending into a period of unprecedented chaos. By not acting now we are severely constraining our options in the future. Maybe Rachel Carson and the Club of Rome authors were wrong in the short term, but now their predictions are not so easy to dismiss. Is Roy Woodbridge wrong? Can we afford to ignore him? What if he is right?